Is There an Ideological Asymmetry in the Incumbency Effect? Evidence From U.S. Congressional Elections

The electoral advantage that incumbent legislators enjoy over challengers in the U.S. Congress has been investigated extensively political science. Very few studies, however, have considered role of individual differences when it comes to incumbency preferences among voters. Based on theory and research psychology, we hypothesized conservatives would exhibit stronger than liberals for incumbents from same party. Extensive analyses based more 150,000 voters seven election cycles United States 2006 2018 support this hypothesis. A significant effect conservatism was observed Senate House Representatives, not attributable Republican Party identification. This ideological asymmetry is consistent with system justification prior linking risk aversion status quo bias. Practical implications directions future are discussed.